Archive for the ‘EU’ Category

Who knows more about extortion, Part II

October 5, 2011

You will remember that back at the start of August in Banking the Sopranos I took a look at Italy’s debt profile and suggested that a) the markets were going to realise that Italy is a much worse risk than Spain and b) that the scale of the Italian liability is such that the power of extortion lay with the Italian side in its dealings with the EU. The Italian government then — in a stroke of comic genius — promised to legislate to make itself solvent.

Two months later we have senior IMF officials saying the Fund is ready to buy Italian debt, and northern Europe (Germany) readying to recapitalise banks such that they can survive big write-downs in ‘peripheral’ country sovereign bonds. The Sopranos look to be almost home and dry without even having to make Mrs Merkel an offer she can’t refuse.

But have the Germans really thought this through? Even if German banks had to write down 50 percent of the value of their (Greek and) Italian bonds they could manage with government back-stop of Euro100 billion, or less than 3 percent of GDP. It is a heavy price, but the return would include pushing Italy out of the Euro as a very profound lesson to other EU miscreants (particularly the eastern European periphery) and giving a world-first lesson about moral hazard to the banking sector, which would eventually have to pay off the write-down. People say that Italy is an important market for Germany, but given the condition of the place it is not going to be a growth opportunity for anyone. Sometimes, as the Chinese say, you need to cut a monkey’s head off to scare the chickens.

I say all this as someone whose family assets are largely concentrated in Italy. We have more than most to lose. And yet I think it would be better to throw Italy to the dogs than to move forward with a bail-out that enforces no fundamental structural change. Either Italy should be inside the Euro with a dramatic structural reform programme led by the IMF, or else outside it with a debt reduction but no one to turn to but itself. As I have written before, if Europe wants a more worthy cause for its patience, why not try Turkey?

 

More:

There are FT discussions of latest European bank bail-out plans here and here (sub needed).

Witch leaves Salem

October 4, 2011

Knox is gone. Not only that, she flew — which is pretty compelling evidence she is a witch. Let those four years inside be a lesson to other young people thinking of taking a student holiday in Italy and smoking a bit of dope. Just as well Knox and Sollecito didn’t grow their own and end up dead in Perugia’s Capanne prison, like the hippie who built our kitchen.

I forgot to remind readers yesterday who have not done so already to watch this short interview with the chief investigator in the Sollecito-Knox case. Arthur Miller must be eating his heart out. His play was only based on a true story.

Other:

Writer Douglas Preston on Mignini and the case, and Mignini’s form with respect to the earlier Tuscan serial killer case. What Preston says is no doubt true, but the Mignini focus tends to draw attention away from what are really systemic problems in Italy. Mignini is a symptom. The incompetence of the magistrates compounds the incompetence of the police and unlike the UK — with the Crown Prosecution Service — there is nothing in the middle of them to act as a circuit breaker.

Before Mr Giobbi undertakes his next ‘exquisitely psychological’ investigation, he would do well to read this.

John Hooper does a Q&A in the Guardian that gives answers I would agree with to a number of obvious and important questions.

The ones that got away

October 3, 2011

So Sollecito and Knox are out.

My immediate reaction is that this is consistent with the behaviour of a survivor institutional-retard state. It is another moment, to use the phrase which Lampedusa never quite used, when ‘everything must change so that everything can remain the same’.

Sollecito and Knox are free so that we can get back to business as usual. It’s a sort of mini Mani Pulite for the legal system.

Anecdotally, what stands out for me more than anything is ignorance. I have asked four separate Italian lawyers, two internationally renowned and two from my local town, what they think about the Sollecito-Knox case and each has said they are sure that in some sense they are guilty. But when you ask why, you realise they are ignorant of even basic facts in the case. A small dose of northern European puritan professionalism would go a long way in Italy. This is a society where no one is capable of saying ‘I don’t know’.

Worth paying attention to:

One of the great UK long-form journalists was in Perugia tonight:

10.31pm: Peter Popham of the Independent tweets:

Weird mood in Perugia’s medieval heart, thugs baying for Amanda’s blood, robbed of the witch they wanted to burn.

The video in court is very Italian, lots of extras on camera. Sollecito, who as a local always seemed to accept that a life in jail might be his fate is more together. Knox, who stood up a the start of the appeal and took the fight to the jury, is spent at this point.

John Hooper toys with the Perugia is different angle.

I am not so sure.

Monday’s coverage:

The second part of this article highlights the position that Italian ‘justice’ has left the Kerchers in. Their suffering goes on because of the grotesque unprofessionalism of the investigation and trial. The Kercher family will hold a press conference this morning that will be blogged here by the Guardian. Their anguish remains focused on the idea that the use of two knives and the number of wounds in the murder must have required more than Guede. I can’t speak to this or to the behaviour of sex attackers who use knives. What everyone can speak to is the fact that there was no motive and no evidence to put Sollecito and Knox in the bedroom where Meredith Kercher died and a huge amount of forensic evidence — hair, hand prints, finger prints, semen, other DNA — to put Guede there. I wonder if at the presser the Kerchers will mention the fact that Guede can expecct to be out of jail in only seven or eight years after his sentence was reduced on appeal (largely, I would say, to ‘fit’ with the wrongful convictions of Sollecito and Knox). If you run a legal system like a bunch of adoloscents, there will be a price to pay. Laid-back Italy doesn’t seem so cool today.

The Perugia shock blog reminds us that Knox’s 3-year, Euro22,000 criminal defamation conviction for saying the black bar owner she knew had committed the crime is UPHELD. This is very important because it is tantamount to saying the police did not intimidate and hit her during the illegal all-night interrogation for which no tape recordings have ever been produced. I have blogged before that the obvious explanation for her accusation against the bar owner, Patrick Lumumba, is that the first clearly identifiable forensic evidence the police found at the crime scene was the hair of a black male (Guede). They knew they were looking for a black man before they got the DNA match to Guede’s police record. And, in the middle of the night, subjecting Amanda Knox to the kind of pressure and sleep deprivation that produces false confessions everywhere, they got their black man (a mild-mannered barman according to people I know who know him).

(Note that the Perugia Shock blog, written by an Italian non-native English speaker, sometimes slips into the kind of emotional language that is not helpful to understanding the case. However in general it provides excellent, fine-grained coverage that you will not find in a newspaper. The author is being sued for guess what — criminal defamation — by Mignini.)

 

Want to read the rest of the stuff I have written about the Sollecito-Knox case? Just click on the ‘Sollecito and Knox’ tag (subject Categories and Tags are all listed in the right hand border).

The aberration angle

September 19, 2011

The Observer runs a long article  to coincide with the start of summing up in the appeal case of Sollecito and Knox in Perugia.

The expectation of an acquittal is now such that journalists are moving on to the ‘What it all means’ phase. And this story is probably a taste of what is to come.

An unnamed source is quoted:

‘According to one local journalist with decades of crime reporting experience, the descent of American and British reporters on Perugia in the days after the killing “put pressure on local investigators to go too fast”.’

Only in Italy could a journalist — a person whose work is public by nature — insist on being quoted as an unnamed source. It is the measure of the society, and the shallowness of its professionals. Of course it is also shocking (and I think unusual) that The Observer would allow a journalist to be quoted as an unnamed source.

The import of the remark, of course, is straightforward. This is an early example of the aberration argument. It infers that this miscarriage of justice was unusual, explicable by its uniqueness, and partly the fault of foreign journalists.

Were the jailings of the Birmingham Six, the Guildford Four or the Maguire Seven in the UK aberrations that resulted from journalistic pressure on police? Or did these cases — and many more that were not terrorist-related — reflect systemic failings in the police and criminal justice systems?

The passage and application of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act in the UK in 1984 is the answer to the question.

In Italy, there will be no gains from a monstrous miscarriage of justice. Instead, we are getting ready for face saving. The narrative of the professional class’s self-defence is under construction. It tells of a society incapable of self-improvement.

At the same time, inflaming those famous Italian tempers further, people around Berlusconi are suggesting that acquittal for Sollecito and Knox will prove that the police-judicial system is rotten to the core and therefore that cases against the premier are fabricated assaults. It is the little jump in logic that does not work. The system is a mess, but this is not reflected in the existence of cases against Berlusconi, it is reflected in the fact that justice is never done.

In northern Europe or the US Berlusconi would have been dealt with by the judicial system years ago. Here he gets to survive, with the only quid pro quo being that he must participate in the judicial circus. The latest gratuitous leaks and leaks from cases that have not been completed are surely a small price to pay for never actually having to pay for anything. Better still, the judiciary is a source of endless votes for Berlusconi, much of whose political support derives from popular frustration with Italy’s Third World legal system.

It takes one to know one

September 12, 2011

After a summer of relentlessly serious news stories, it seems the silly season has finally arrived. The FT.com lead story tonight reports from Rome that Italy is hoping to be bailed out of its debt crisis by China (sub needed).

The idea is that sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp. (CIC) is going to lend Italy a stack of money. In essence this would amount to China bailing out northern Europe by lending to Italy a few days/ weeks before northern Europe finally concedes that Italy cannot afford to pay its debts.

The outcome presupposes that China and CIC are incredibly stupid. But that is not the case. As a political entity China is in fact from the same stable as Italy — the bullshitters. And the last person you want to go to when you are trying to sell something dodgy like Italian debt is another bullshitter.

Gets even funnier:

The FT claims the Euro and stock markets are rallying on the possibility that China will come to Italy’s rescue.

Just look at the state of…

September 11, 2011

The British middle class

A great story by Zoe Williams about the national education system, national education versus private education, and middle-class selfishness. For me, the ghettoised education system remains the thing to like least in Britain.

Premiership football

The tale of how footballer Wayne Bridge decided to stay at Manchester City on his £4.7 million salary even though the team is unlikely to give him first team football and he has been left out of the Champions League squad. Somehow the price mechanism doesn’t seem to be extracting peak performance from Wayne.

Continental Europe

Still, being here in the UK you get to look at certain other places in Europe and reflect that things could be so much worse.

English honeymoon

September 6, 2011

Last week I loaded a child into the car and headed north, through Switzerland, France, Luxembourg and Belgium to the UK. The wife and other kids joined us this week. We will spend at least a year in Cambridge. I cannot say that I am sad to have moved my base away from Italy at this point, although we will be back regularly and there are friends we miss.

It is the first time we have lived properly in England for 20 years and there are forgotten marvels to remember, as well as new ones to behold.  I have been enough of a regular visitor over the years to know how much chocolate is sold in petrol stations. But on family visits to Marks & Spencer and Tesco we are dumbfounded by the number of refrigerated aisles containing those processed foods that Brits eat so much of. (At least six in a row just in M&S, versus two in our Italian supermarket. Many, many more in a hangar-size Tesco.) On a hot September day we are suddenly desperate to wrap up warm while inspecting the rows of chilled curry dishes, mezze, pasta favourites, pre-cooked joints of meat and the rest. The stuff is staggeringly expensive when you think how much veg you can buy for 10 quid. And yet for people not habituated to daily fresh food preparation, these offerings are compelling.

Tesco now has self-checkout counters which allow your children to experience at an early age the type of employment they can expect if they do not pay attention at school. First time round they find the work invigorating, especially when an item fails to scan and they have to call for assistance. But I reckon that by Christmas they will have figured out that it is worth up-skilling somewhat.

On Sunday morning we rise early for a ‘car boot’ sale — and it does not disappoint. About 100 people have their car boots open by 9am, offering up the most indescribably useless tat in return for money. A pair of low quality circa-1970 skis catch my eye. Imagine actually turning up to a ski resort with them. To be fair, the stuff is not that much worse than some of the junk displayed at the monthly ‘Retro’ Citta di Castello antiques fair — but whereas the Italians display their crap with a little finesse on tables in a beautiful piazza, here it is simply dumped on the Tarmac of a car-park. The children find the car boot sale as perversely interesting as I do, and when we leave I realise that we have acquired two serviceable children’s bikes for just £35. This could become a habit.

Part of the reason I came to England ahead of the rest of the family was to do appeals for school places. Our two eldest kids were offered places at their second choice primary school — 20 minutes by bike instead of five for the closest one — while the council wanted the youngest child to be shipped across town every day in a taxi to a new school several miles away. Cambridgeshire has the fastest-growing population in England and school places are failing to keep up. The appeal process was everything that Italy is not: immediate, decided by fairly sensible rules, and binding on the participants. The council puts its case, I put ours. The notion of sending the youngest child miles away by taxi was shot down and the council representative instructed to create a place at her first choice school. The other two kids were left with their second choices. We will have to cope with two different schools for now, but the situation is far from dire.

What else is immediately pleasing? Apart from the fact that Cambridge is very cosmopolitan and people are dedicated to getting stuff done in an unfussy way, I would say fast internet access. It really is another world after Italy. With connection speeds like these you could spend all day messing around on the InterWeb…

If you did, here are some examples of what you might find:

Bob Marley plays acoustic Redemption Song.

Brian Ferry covers Dylan’s A Simple Twist of Fate rather well.

A 12-year-old child plays You Shook Me All Night Long in his bedroom rather well.

ACDC’s Angus Young and Brian Johnson are interviewed by German TV while Angus nurses a tea mug.

Bob Dylan proves he is capable of smiling and having fun at Farm Aid in 1985.

Moreover Dylan keeps enjoying himself.

And Dylan really likes playing this song.

Bob Dylan is portrayed on the Simpsons.

Bob Dylan is portrayed on Family Guy with Tom Waits, Popeye and Ali.

Various interviews with people believed in some religions to sit on the left hand side of God the Father Almighty

Mr Dylan.

Mr Young.

Mr Waits.

Mr Cale.

Meanwhile back in Italy:

If this crisis were a movie, half the audience would be asleep. The government changes its mind every day about austerity budgets, there is no traction on structural reforms, the unions strike without offering any policy agenda of their own, Italian bank stocks are back in free-fall, and Italian bond yields are rising again despite the ECB having swallowed over Euro40 billion of government debt — much of which must be Italian — in the past three weeks. We all know the ending, so why not just cut to the IMF?

Homecoming II: the official response

August 25, 2011

The attentive reader will recall that having been robbed for the second time on the Fiumicino airport-Rome trains on 16 July I contacted ‘Dottoressa’ Caccia, responsible for statistical data at Italy’s Railway Police (Polfer) and that she told me to send my written enquiries to  the ‘scrivici’ (‘write to us’) web site of the state police. This site only allows a maximum 600 character (approximately 100 word) enquiry, so I had to be short and specific:

Sono stato rubato per la seconda volta a bordo il treno che porta a/dal l’aeroporto Fiumicino. Ho parlato con Dott. Caccia nel ufficio Polfer a Roma e vorrei avere i seguenti dati.

1. Il tot. annuale di denuncie di reato sulle linea Fiumicino-Termini e Fiumicino-Tiburtina nei ultimi 5 anni (meglio ancora dal 2004).

2.  Una conferma che questi dati contengono TUTTE le denuncie fatte — o sul modulo in lingue straniere o sul modulo tradizionale in Italiano.

3. Vorrei sapere se mantenete dati per il numero di giorni al anno che le telecamere sul binario 26 della stazione Termini non funziano (per guasti or altri motivi.) Se ci sono dati pubblici, vorrei ottenerli.

Let’s be honest that the Italian is not great, but nor is it difficult to understand.

The big surprise was that a section of the state police did reply:

Gentile signor Studwell,

la ringraziamo per aver contattato il Dipartimento di Pubblica Sicurezza fornendo utili segnalazioni sui furti che avvengono sui cosiddetti “treni a rischio”, in particolare nella tratta Roma-Fiumicino.

Siamo molto spiacenti per i furti che ha subito in due diverse occasioni su tali treni, faremo sicuramente tesoro delle sue utili indicazioni.

Premettendo che il nostro Ufficio è preposto esclusivamente al contatto con i referenti dei media, vorremmo comunque darle alcuni elementi di risposta alla sua richiesta in merito ai dati sui furti in danno dei viaggiatori.

Dal 2004 al 2010 è stata registrata una diminuzione delle denunce di furto pari al 62% per quanto riguarda gli episodi di furto in stazione ed al 45% per quelli a bordo treno. Il periodo gennaio – luglio 2011, confrontato con l’analogo periodo del 2010, ha fatto registrare un ulteriore calo dell’8% per i furti in stazione e del 21% per i furti a bordo treno.

Infine vorremmo rassicurarla confermando che i dati sulle denunce comprendono anche quelle effettuate sui moduli in lingua straniera.

Rimaniamo a disposizione per ogni eventuale altro chiarimento.

Cordiali saluti

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note the introductory line that ‘Despite the fact we are supposed to deal exclusively with the media [in this office], we would however like to provide you a few elements of response…’

I specifically asked for data on reported thefts on the Fiumicino airport- Rome  trains between 2004 and 2010. The reply states that reports of theft in stations and on trains fell respectively 62% and 45% between these dates, without saying where. There are further data about declining reports of theft this year.

The reply further states that the data include all reports filed on foreign language forms (the ones without reference numbers).

Since the press office failed to use a no-reply address (even Italians have tricks to learn) I asked for two clarifications:

Grazie per la risposta. Vorrei chiarificare 2 cose.

1. Questi dati sulle denunce che fornite referiscono a quale linea di ferrovia? La prima volta che sono stato rubato ero sul treno Termini-Fiumicino. La seconda volta sulla linea Fiumicino-Tiburtina. Sono due linee diverse. Volete dire che c’e stato questo calo sulla linea Termini-Fiumicino, or Fiumicino-Tiburtina, o dove?

2. Come potete sapere che i dati sulle denunce comprendono quelle effetuati sui moduli in lingua straniera cuando quelli moduli non hanno numeri di protocollo? E perche non contengono numeri protocolli?

And here is the reply:

I dati si riferiscono alle denunce di reati commessi “in stazione” oppure ” a bordo treno” nel loro complesso, ovevro senza distinzioni di linee o stazioni specifiche. è quindi da intendersi come dato complessivo.

il protocollo è inserito sulla nota di trasmissione della denuncia all’autorità giudiziaria.

nel nostro sistema giudiziario,infatti, tuttti i fatti di reato devono infatti essere comunicati all’Autorità Giudiziaria e per un lavoro più agevole si preferisce questo sistema, ma le confermiamo che tutte le denunce di reati vengono acquisite per i necessari studi sull’andamento della criminalità. siamo noi i primi quindi ad avere intreresse a ricevere denunce e segnalazioni per migliorare i nostri interventi.

Cordialità.

The first bit begins to concede that the data provided do not refer to the Fiumicino airport trains… in other words that my enquiry has not been answered.

The second part becomes more interesting, claiming that the police add reference numbers to foreigner reports of crime after the reports are received because the system is ‘piu agevole’, which I would translate as ‘more efficient’ (or you could use ‘smoother’).

I would say that the system is more efficient from the perspective of policemen who want to reduce the amount of reported crime by altering or losing crime reports (see the scans of the forms and discussion here).

But as usual I am wrong, and am reminded that in Italy there is a binding legal obligation on the police to report all crimes to the judicial authority. Moreover, the state police assure, they themselves want to know how much crime is being committed so that they can hone their crime-busting techniques.

I asked for a final clarification on the data about reported thefts:

I dati che mi avete forniti, allora, sono di tutto l’Italia?

Se uno rilegge l’email originale, non siete stati chiari su questo.

Cordiali saluti,

And the final reply:

Gentile Signor Studwell,

le confermiamo che i dati che le sono stati forniti sono nazionali.

Cordialità

So, yes, they gave me national rail crime report data — and avoided providing anything for the Fiumicino trains, (where Ms Caccia told me on the phone theft is down by ‘at least 85 percent’).

The national data also indicate a big drop in reported thefts.

Do I believe even these national data? I think that given the use of unregistered foreigner reporting forms — which my policeman was so insistent I fill out in preference to an Italian form with a reference number — and given the remarkable obfuscation by the police statistics office, it is very hard to do so. Anecdotally, I haven’t seen anything change in terms of policing at Italian stations and on Italian trains in recent years, so why would reported crime fall so sharply? As I wrote previously, riding back and forth on the airport trains after the July 16 robbery, I was able to watch pairs of extracommunitari wandering the carriages, seemingly looking for victims in the most nonchalant fashion.

In the absence of measurable evidence to the contrary, my guess is that a significant part of what is happening statistically is that crimes on trains are not being added to the statistics. I don’t have more time at present to go into this, but it would be very interesting to know when the foreigner forms were introduced.

10 cents on the Euro

August 20, 2011

Here’s a weekend snapshot of the death throes of Italy’s financial system…

On a five year view, the share prices of the country’s big 3 banks are close to being — in strict terms — decimated. Intesa SanPaolo is worth about 15 cents of what it was, Unicredit 12 cents, and Monte Dei Paschi di Siena has already breached the 10 cent barrier.

Both Intesa and MPS are well below their previous financial crisis lows of March 2009.

On recent trends, next week should see all three big banks in decimation territory. The main reason, as discussed here, is their exposure to Italian public debt.

When a bank’s share price is decimated, what happens? Other banks will not lend to it, lest they fail to get their money back. The interbank market closes its door. That may already be happening since the ECB conceded this week that it extended significant funds to one unnamed institution.

As well as buying up all Italy’s debt as it rolls over, the ECB may in the next few days begin funding all its banks as well.

Still, as Frau Merkel and Sarko like to point out, it’s not like they have agreed to issue Eurobonds.

We should get a number on Monday for what the ECB spent in the full week up to last Wednesday on Italian (and Spanish) public paper. My guess is we are in for a monster. Northern European taxpayers will want to avert their eyes.

My own bank is Monte dei Paschi (motto: ‘Medieval bank, medieval service’). I was in there on Friday, discussing the unannounced interruption of my e-banking service (apparently anyone who had not used it for three months was cut off for ‘security’ reasons; I have now been restored). The friendly staff, in their ridiculously spacious branch, didn’t seem fazed by the fact their employer’s market capitalisation is now less than US$3 billion and headed for zero.

Perhaps they think it will be more fun working for a foreign bank? I very much doubt it will be. When the IMF comes in, MPS has to be the prime candidate for takeover by a foreign institution (HSBC? StandardChartered?). My guess is that Italy will be forced to throw at least one of its big banks to the foreign dogs in order to satisfy the IMF’s deregulation strictures, and number three is perhaps the most likely to go. MPS has so far survived 540 years, but this one may be a year too far (though I do not know to what extent MPS’s incorporation structure provides a defence against takeover… it may appear to provide protection, but when the IMF shows up, all bets are off).

Hold on tight now.

 

Update, Monday 22 August:

The ECB today confirmed Euro14 billion of government bond purchases under its Securities Markets Programme in the week to last Wednesday (11-17 August), less than I had been expecting. Still, we are at Euro36 billion in two weeks, and rising. Meanwhile the Bundesbank explicitly criticises the reactivation of the bond purchase programme in its latest monthly bulletin, jacking up the political pressure in Germany. Stock prices of IntesaSanPaolo and Unicredit continued to fall today, despite a small rebound in European markets; the most bombed-out counter, MPS, rose.

Here is the full history of SMP purchases since May 2010 (ie. Rounds 1 & 2).

Antipasto

August 15, 2011

The European Central Bank has revealed that it spent Euro22 billion buying bonds in the first two days of last week, almost all of which would have been Italian and Spanish paper. Italian and Spanish bond purchases were only authorised from last Monday. I gave a detailed view on the structural story here, on Italy’s unconvincing promises to sort itself out here, and my take on the reality behind last week’s equity panic here.

So: in its first two days the ECB spent almost one-third as much as it did in its (wholly unsuccessful) multi-month bond buying programme for Greece, Ireland and Portugal (Euro74bn). It is nice that the admission comes on the same day that Merkel and Sarko reiterated there will never be any Eurobonds, not ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, jamais, niemals…  (FT sub needed).

Meanwhile sellers of Italian (and Spanish) debt have had their starter and are looking towards the kitchen door. But as they savour the flavour on their palates, what is that rather unusual smell coming from within? I know! It is the aroma of German taxpayer money burning…