Archive for the ‘Britain’ Category

Goodbye Margaret

April 8, 2013

thatcher 20s thatcher 50s

As a kid, I did impersonations of her, sitting in the back of my mother’s VW Beetle, leaning in between the seats. I lived in the increasingly post-industrial north of England and her voice was so ‘other’ that I couldn’t give a jot what she actually stood for. Of course I was too young to understand either the politics of Margaret Thatcher or the quintessentially British neurosis behind her forced upper class accent.

With the benefit of 30 years of hindsight, I have no great issue with the economics of Thatcher. The reason that so many people on all sides of the political divide find it hard to criticise her is that, more than anything, she delivered a mortal blow to many vested interest groups. In the Britain of the late 1970s, her time had come.

In the end, however, Margaret Thatcher’s legacy is a shallow one.  She did very little to challenge the dreary class basis of British society (far less, indeed, than her grotesque parody and successor, Tony Blair). She understood nothing about Europe and fingered liberal post-war Germany as a proto-fascist state. As a result, while she arrested the immediate economic decline of Britain, she presided over its continued intellectual demise, a trajectory that finds Britain today to be a very marginal society — far, far less than the sum of its individuals.

The United States had its Thatcher in Reagan. But since then it has produced Obama. We, meanwhile, gaze upon Cameron and Osborne, waiting forlornly for the thinking man’s Margaret to appear.

More:

Martin Wolf quick-ish wrap on her economics (FT sub needed)

Confirm the shallowness of Ken Baker by reading this (FT sub needed)

Ditto Niall “Harvard” Ferguson here (FT sub needed)

Guardian doesn’t seem to have anything interesting at a quick glance.

Across the pond, similar drivel from the NYT.

Bloomberg gets the point by focusing more acutely and has a good headline. But it ain’t philosophy.

As good as it gets, and nowhere near as good as his biography of her, by Hugo Young, from 2003 before he died.

Next day:

Perhaps time is improving the copy. Ian McEwan captures Thatcher quite well.

And AC Grayling does at least as well in the New York Times.

Martin Wolf can make us feel dumb, but George Osborne makes us all feel clever…

February 27, 2013

Martin Wolf has a nice review of policies of economic austerity employed in different states since the start of the global financial crisis. (You will need an FT sub.) Although he doesn’t articulate it as strongly as I would like, his basic point is simple: the crisis is not a macro-economic problem soluble by austerity. It is a micro-economic problem, or rather two different micro-economic problems.

The first problem, in the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ countries, is the need to re-regulate finance in order to stop bankers taking unreasonable risks with other people’s money. This is sort of being dealt with (including in the UK by the Vickers Commission on which Wolf sat), albeit for me in a somewhat ham-fisted, messy way that will eventually bring us more problems.

The second micro-economic problem is that a bunch of states that developed fast after the Second World War by means of close government control in order to foster industrialisation (Japan, Italy, France are the main ones) need micro-economic deregulation, especially of their labour markets and government and legal institutions, in order to return to growth and pay off the large debts they built up while becoming rich countries.

So the crisis (or two distinct crises), as Wolf writes today, has very little to do with macro-economics and is, in general, made worse by austerity. If it has taken you a while to wake up to this, however, do not fear. For in Britain we have the person who will perhaps be the last in the entire world to understand what is going on around him: George Osborne.

George Osborne fixes cufflink

I haven’t written anything about George since the UK’s loss of its AAA credit rating, because there is nothing to add. Here is what I said about George in January 2011. And here is an update from November 2011. What happened since? Looks to me like four out of the past five quarters showed negative growth. The graph below is from the Office of National Statistics…

UK Quarterly GDP to Q4 2012 inc

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ten days later:

Martin Wolf follows up with another attack on Osborne’s policy (FT sub needed), which Brave Dave has come out to endorse without reservation. Meanwhile, latest data suggest the chances of a triple dip recession are now as high as 50:50. All I would add to what Wolf says is that the contrast with the early 80s recession turns on the fact there are no major structural adjustments to the labour market that can be made in this crisis to get the economy moving. Unlike in the early 80s, Britain already has a very flexible labour market. This is why (as in the United States and unlike in continental Europe) unemployment has been lower than the scale of economic contraction would suggest. But it also means that monetary policy alone cannot solve the problem and actually discourages many people from undertaking the deleveraging their finances require. Back in 2010 I thought Osborne would realise this within a couple of years and listen to Vince Cable. Ho, ho, ho…

 

Tory, Tory, Tory

February 16, 2013

Like a Kamikaze pilot swooping to certain death, Brave Dave Cameroon’s lard-fed, neighbour-from-hell candidate in the UK’s mid-term byelection signals her commitment to the cause of right-wing ignorance with a shrill affirmation of her deepest prejudice. Given the parlous condition of the Lib-Dem incumbent party, I am reminded of my (right-wing) undergraduate professor’s observation that British politics is essentially about waiting for the Conservatives to shoot themselves in the foot.

Thought food

January 31, 2013

Here is a rather powerful piece of writing – particularly the historical analysis in the first half — encouraged by The Guardian’s George Monbiot having turned 50.

It connects up to this article about Nick Clegg who, I think, fails to recognise that if the Liberal Democrat party cannot be more principled than the Labour party, then there really is no reason whatsoever for its existence.

 

Completely separately

Have I entered a parallel universe, or did I just give a speech to a large conference in the US at which these were the newspapers people were reading?

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Back on the blog

August 20, 2012

It’s been a while.

Back in February I was infuriated when WordPress suffered an IT breakdown and failed to remind me of the need to renew my blog domain. The domain was ‘cyber-squatted’ by some monkeys who stuck up porno pics, links in Chinese for cheap flights, and demanded Euro200 to get the domain back. After a week, I paid up, but kinda lost the urge to blog. WordPress admitted their cock-up, but showed no inclination to cover the expense they created for me.

It is a great, FREE service. But I was pissed.

Meanwhile, I had to do a revision of a new book, which took time and pain. The results, I think, are worth it. The book will be out in March 2013 and, whatever people say, is the most important thing I have written. The title: ‘How Asia Works’. You heard it first.

This blog needs some amending. Since September last year we have been living in Cambridge. But, right now, we are back in Italy, which is still a great holiday destination, even if it doesn’t work as a country.

We drove down through Germany, my new favourite European state, following the spine of western civilisation, aka the Rhine. Starting in the offshore port-financial centre called Holland we progressed to Aachen, imperial seat of Charlemagne — he who made European power shift decisively north after the end of the Roman empire. Fantastic kit in the chapel and museums and a local 35% liquor made with herbs (‘Printen’) that can compete with anything I have tried in Italy. From there to the Mosel valley, just off the Rhine, and very beautful. The youngest counted 23 castles to win the castle-counting prize. Wenches in trad dresses serving, er, German food. Finally Freiburg, university town, with fresh water flowing down shallow gutters around town, a bit like Cambridge. Very nice.

The people seemed not entirely infuriated by the bills they will have to pay on behalf of their southern neighbours. Indeed the polls suggest that Frau Merkel can win a third term. The Germans are truly the grown-ups of Europe. Even if they take the neatness and prissiness thing a little too far.

And so it was that we returned to the Third World. Albeit on holiday this time. But still. You couldn’t make this shit up.

Preferably ask no questions

January 25, 2012

The annual Reporters Without Borders index of press freedom is out.

The UK is 28. Behind Jamaica, which reminds us that press freedom can’t solve every problem.

Italy is 61. The lowest rank of any major developed country.

China is 174. Out of 179. But still ahead of Iran, Syria, Turkmenistan, North Korea, and Eritrea.

Book review: School Wars

December 30, 2011

If you have children, and you have not read a history of the British education system, then this book is already worth reading. It is far from perfectly organised, and it fails to make some — to me — obvious and powerful points about education policy. Indeed the book might have been better as a more closely focused pamphlet of 120 pages rather than the 200 pages that it is. But overall, School Wars contains enough good information to leave you grinding your teeth at the weakness and hypocrisy of British politicians in all three major parties. It has proven, in Britain, easier to have a rational debate about homosexuality than about education.

Why? The proximate reason is that the British establishment is still overwhelmingly educated in elitist schools which refuse to accept poor or more difficult to teach children. The apex of this system is the roughly 7 percent of children who go to private schools and the 5 percent who go to grammars. But if you count in other church and non-church state schools which cherry-pick their intake, there is probably one-fifth or more of families and kids which undertake their education on the unspoken basis that it is reasonable to leave everyone else to fend for themselves.

In a country like Italy, the elite plunders the state directly. In Britain, the approach to making sure the establishment gets more than its share is far more subtle. Indeed one can only admire the refinement of the hypocrisy. Instead of grabbing what you want directly, you give yourselves an unassailable advantage by creating selective schools for those with more money, more accumulated learning and better social networks and then ‘compete’ with people who have had to undertake their education in the real, everyday world of mixed incomes and abilities.

School Wars fails to make the most important point about this system — that those who support it are anti-competitive. The British education system exists to prevent children having equal educational opportunity and therefore from competing on an equal basis. It is a myth that the rich and powerful like competition — it is a threat to their status. What they like is competition according to rules they set, just what the British education system offers.

Another thing School Wars fails to address is the false fear that most people have about a nationalised education system, where each school would educate a fair cross-section of the population. Such an arrangement would create a more genuine free market, but it would never mean that the monied classes could not bring their money to bear on their children’s advancement. Such support would simply have to occur outside school, as is the case in Scandinavian countries, continental European ones, north-east Asian ones, or Canada, which have non-selective school systems and post higher average educational scores than Britain.  Money still counts in those countries. However you cannot move your child to some ‘gated’ educational community free of the poor.

It may seem there is a lot missing from Melissa Benn’s book. In fact, there is a lot in it. She is good at showing how real improvement in Britain’s education system cannot come from piecemeal change. Britain needs a simple, straightforward commitment to education as a public good. Everything else leads back, through any number of byways, to manipulation of the system by more powerful interests against less powerful interests. The loser is the  aggregate quality of education. As constructed today the British school system is really an experiment to prove the existence of middle class selfishness. We knew that existed already.

A bit of Perugia in all of us

December 2, 2011

The trial of police officers involved in a wrongful 1980 conviction of 3 men for murder in Wales has collapsed on a technicality. The case has interesting parallels with the Sollecito and Knox case in Perugia. The three convicted men left no forensic/DNA evidence at the crime scene, despite a murder by 50 stab wounds. The man later convicted of the murder left plenty of forensic evidence, but police were obsessed with the other three suspects. As in Perugia, their theory was more important than the investigation.

It all looks rather Italian, as does the failure to complete a trial of the police officers alleged to have perverted the course of justice. However we must note that there have already been two enquiries into this case, and there will now be a third. That isn’t the same as Perugia, where the expectation is that there will be no enquiry, nothing will change, and police and magistrates will not even get a telling off.

What I meant was more tank engines

November 29, 2011

As I stop for a tuna sandwich, the Fat Controller has left the Treasury and is heading for parliament. Here is what I predicted in January. Let’s see how Osborne’s admissions today measure up.

Next day:

1. Osborne changed his growth forecast for 2012 from 2.5% to 0.8%, so at this point he was out at the start of the year by a fact of just over three.

2. There will be a few more tank engines, but any real impact from the Fat Controller’s plan depends on the private sector coming in to leverage about £5 billion of public money. HM Treasury explication of its ‘clear’ infrastructure plan is here.

3. It is very small beer from Osborne, less than I expected. Outlook has to be that growth will fall even further than he now says and there will be some additional capex stimulus in the first half of 2012. He is going to follow the curve rather than influencing it throughout this crisis.

4. Politically the FC is taking the low road of a blame game. It’s all the fault of the Eurozone and the previous long-lived Labour government. There is a sufficient kernel of truth in this to deflect attention from the fact that Osborne himself has no new ideas about anything.

Royal quiz

November 21, 2011

 

The Duke of Edinburgh is quoted in the papers today by someone he spoke to at a reception as follows:

‘He said they were absolutely useless, completely reliant on subsidies and an absolute disgrace.’

To which of the following was the beloved husband of the Queen — and in his youth  Prince of Greece — referring?

a) the royal family

b) Greeks

c) wind turbines

d) all of the above